Last update: 10/4
1. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (prev: 3)
He is loved by the Academy, the project is as Oscar-friendly as it gets, and reviews out of Toronto say he has the kind of showy role voters can’t resist. Done deal (though I’m not sure he’s a real threat for the win).
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (prev: 4)
It’s only a matter of time until Bale, one of the most heralded young actors of his generation, lands an Oscar nomination. This is one of his baitiest projects yet, and his role as crack addict and former boxer is definitely up Oscar’s alley.
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (prev: 9)
There’s a lot of internal competition with this film, but Garfield is a major up-and-comer and sometimes Oscar likes to honor someone before they become superstars. Eduardo Saverin is also the most sympathetic character in the film, and Garfield gets a lot of great scenes to work with (and he knocks them out of the park).
4. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (prev: 2)
Another overdue actor, Ruffalo came close to a nomination in 2000 with You Can Count On Me. Assuming that this summer film is able to sustain it’s buzz all the way to nominations day, Ruffalo should find himself nominated alongside his co-star Annette Bening (and possibly Julianne Moore).
5. Justin Timberlake, The Social Network (prev: 22)
Timberlake has the showiest role in the film, and he is truly great (and is definitely turning heads with the performance). Oscar likes to nominate pop stars more often than you’d think, so he’s looking pretty good for a nomination right now (I could even envision a win).
6. Sam Rockwell, Conviction (prev: 6)
7. Ed Harris, The Way Back (prev: 1)
8. Jeremy Renner, The Town (prev: 13)
9. Vincent Cassel, Black Swan (prev: 5)
10. Armie Hammer, The Social Network (NEW)
11. Bill Murray, Get Low (prev: 7)
12. Matt Damon, True Grit (NEW)
13. Jon Hamm, The Town (NEW)
14. Colin Farrell, The Way Back (NEW)
15. Josh Brolin, True Grit (prev: 17)
16. Zach Galifianakis, It’s Kind of a Funny Story (prev: 25)
17. Andrew Garfield, Never Let Me Go (prev: 21)
18. Dustin Hoffman, Barney’s Version (NEW)
19. Guy Pearce, The King’s Speech (prev: 18)
20. John Malkovich, Secretariat (NEW)
21. Bob Hoskins, Made in Dagenham (NEW)
22. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone (NEW)
23. Chris Cooper, The Company Men (prev: 8 )
24. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (prev: 24)
25. Timothy Spall, The King’s Speech (prev: 15)
Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life (prev: 10) – moved to 2011
Alfred Molina, The Tempest (prev: 11)
Christopher Plummer, Beginners (prev: 12) – moved to 2011
Giovanni Ribisi, The Rum Diary (prev: 14) – moved to 2011
Sean Penn, The Tree of Life (prev: 16) – moved to 2011
Djimon Hounsou, The Tempest (prev: 19)
Willem Dafoe, Miral (prev: 20)
Michael Gambon, The King’s Speech (prev: 23)